Is Iskandar the start of a beautiful relationship?
A recent friendly football match between Singapore and Malaysia - Source: redsport.sg
Today, Dr Hank Lim, my research director at SIIA, asked me and my colleagues – why did MM Lee visit Malaysia for a week?
I was reminded of the online furore over Dr Mahathir’s comments on MM Lee from the blogs featured on Singapore Daily.
However, Hank gave a vastly different comment to the visit. In fact, it did not have anything to do with Dr M’s blog rants. He conjectures the reason for MM Lee’s visit instead.
The global crisis is changing the power structure of the world and Hank predicts that the USA would not regain its pre-crisis prestige and strategic power even as the world slowly recovers from the economic poison. He thinks that the world will be more regional-centric and hence ASEAN needs to shore up its relevancy and strategic position.
He thinks that is why MM Lee visited Malaysia. The senior statesman wanted to assess what are the industries and Malaysian states that Singapore can work with to strengthen both countries’ economy and in turn, lead the way for ASEAN to improve its economic community.
In the regional association, Singapore and Malaysia are the two most developed nations. Therefore it makes sense for Singapore to want to establish a win-win relationship with its northern neighbour.
A zero-sum game won’t cut it and Singapore is willing to make the first move in building a strong and close relationship with Malaysia.
Furthermore, Singapore’s foreign policy is guided by its holy trinity:
- It is a small state
- Foreign policy must ensure Singapore’s survival
- A pragmatic or realpolitik approach to foreign policy and national survival
However, the foreign policy is also affected positively by economic interdependence and regional institution-building.
These ‘guidelines’ implies that cooperation with its neighbours (ASEAN) in the economic and political spheres is paramount to the survival of Singapore as a sovereign state and that means intra-ASEAN cooperation and the strength of ASEAN will feature largely in our foreign policy.
It is possible that the Iskandar Development Region (now known as Iskandar Malaysia) would foster the relationship of the two countries towards stronger bilateral ties and cooperation. In addition, the week-long visit which includes taking the Minister-Mentor to four Malaysian states; Penang, Perak, Kelantan and Pahang, would provide a strong assessment on the possible areas of economic cooperation that Singapore can work with Malaysia.
Moreover, SM Goh Chok Tong had visited the Middle East in Sep 2008 to “deepen Singapore’s political and economic engagement with the Middle East”. More hint at greater regionalism and the shifting of global economic powers?
When the world geo-political and economical play changes, Singapore, Malaysia and the rest of ASEAN will be well-positioned to meet the new world order.
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Of course, Wayang Party has a totally different take on the matter. They think that MM Lee’s visit is purely driven by his fear of possible opposition takeover of the Malaysia federal government and its implications on Singapore. It is also an interesting theory.
Your Dr Hank’s “world will be more regional-centric” thesis falls in the same basket as “age of the Asian tigers” bull. The USA may be down, but she’s definitely not out. As for China, watch her implode without the US market that gave her the economic boost. Ditto India, whose outsourcing goldmine will disappear with the American companies pulling back.
Lee’s visit to Malaysia is just his last hurrah to repair the damage done over the years, the most serious of which is the POA quarrel. Note how badly he failed when his third bridge/sand ban gambit angered the Malaysians. He has lost his touch, and should go away quietly before his prior accomplishments with the team of Goh Keng Swee et al gets buried in the incompetencies of his son’s team.
Jolene: Thanks for your comment.
1. Why would you say Hank’s theory is similar to the Asian Tigers era?
2. China just attended the inaugural BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) summit in Russia. BRIC might just be the new economic power group that will help China continue its economic run.
3. Given MM Lee’s age, why do you think that he still need a “last hurrah” to “repair the damage”?
4. How do you define the incompetencies that you think the current cabinet have? Mas Selamat great escape? Town Council gamble with public funds? Temasek’s investment loss?
cooperation with its neighbours (ASEAN) in the economic and political spheres is paramount to the survival of Singapore as a sovereign state
I think this assertion that intra-ASEAN cooperation is ‘paramount’ to Singapore’s survival might be slightly extreme. Even though ASEAN cooperation has been heavily emphasized, in reality Singapore and other member-states have prioritised their national interests over that of regional. Some examples can be Singapore’s direct pursuit of FTAs with China, New Zealand, Australia etc before ASEAN as a whole began negotiations with the respective countries. This probably implies that Singapore is impatient with the rest of ASEAN i.e. it doesn’t want to be pulled back.
Hence Singapore’s foreign policy is likely to be more complex, with ASEAN featuring in it insofar as it enhances state survival. In cases where ASEAN hinder its development, Singapore’s foreign policy is flexible enough to ignore it totally.